Standard Chartered Sees Temporary Stablecoin Slowdown but Maintains Bold Two Trillion Dollar Outlook

Standard Chartered has scaled back its near-term expectations for Treasury bill demand linked to stablecoins, but the bank remains unwavering in its conviction that the sector could swell to $2 trillion by the end of 2028. In a new report, analysts describe the current cooling phase not as a structural failure, but as a cyclical pause in a market still tethered to broader crypto sentiment.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, and U.S. rates strategist John Davies now estimate that stablecoin issuers could generate between $800 billion and $1 trillion in fresh T-bill demand through 2028. That figure marks a significant revision from the $1.6 trillion projected in April 2025. Still, the bank has not altered its headline forecast that the stablecoin market capitalization will expand from roughly $300 billion today to $2 trillion within three years.

The analysts attribute the recent plateau in stablecoin growth partly to weaker crypto prices and regulatory adjustments following the passage of the GENIUS Act. The downturn in digital assets has been particularly sharp forspan>Bitcoin/span>, which has fallen more than 50 percent from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. With trading volumes subdued, demand for dollar-pegged tokens used as liquidity instruments has naturally softened.

Standard Chartered characterizes this deceleration as “cyclical rather than structural,” signaling confidence that the long-term adoption curve remains intact. If realized, a $2 trillion stablecoin market would represent roughly 30 percent of the $6 trillion to $7 trillion T-bill market, a scale that could begin to exert tangible influence over U.S. funding conditions.

When stablecoin-driven demand is combined with anticipated purchases by thespan>Federal Reserve/span>, the implications become more consequential. The Fed is projected to buy $500 billion to $600 billion in T-bills through Reserve Management Purchases, alongside a similar amount via reinvestment of maturing mortgage-backed securities. Together with stablecoin reserve flows, total new demand for bills could reach approximately $2.2 trillion by 2028.

Yet projected net new T-bill supply over the same period stands closer to $1.3 trillion, assuming the current share of bills within total outstanding debt remains stable. That imbalance could leave a shortfall of roughly $900 billion. The report suggests one possible remedy would involve thespan>United States Department of the Treasury/span> shifting issuance from longer-dated bonds into short-term bills, a move that could effectively suspend 30-year bond auctions for several years.

Treasury Secretaryspan>Scott Bessent/span> recently described the GENIUS Act as “an important feature of financing the U.S. government,” a comment cited by the bank as reinforcing the argument for increased bill issuance. At the same time, analysts warn that without adjustments, the Fed’s purchasing program could render T-bills “overly scarce.”

Market observers remain divided on the broader impact. Kevin Lee of Gate argues that yield curve effects should remain marginal unless stablecoins achieve truly substantial scale. Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau raises a different concern, cautioning that concentrated liquidity could amplify stress if issuers buy aggressively in high-liquidity environments and sell into thinner markets during redemption waves.

In a separate revision, Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 price target for Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, while acknowledging the possibility of a drop to $50,000 before any recovery takes hold. For now, the bank’s message is clear: short-term headwinds may persist, but the structural thesis for stablecoins remains firmly in place.